Bagmati Province contributes highest to national GDP

by | May 28, 2021 | News & Events

Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) released Provincial GDP for fiscal year 2077/78 on 14th May 2021. According to CBS GDP estimates are based on the preliminary and revised estimates for fiscal year 2076/77. Data regarding various economic indicators for the last 9 months of the current fiscal year are used to estimate the GDP for provinces. 

Information on effects of COVID-19 pandemic on world economy is also considered to calculate the GDP. According to the report published Bagmati Province contributes largest to national GDP followed by Province 1, Lumbini Province, Province 2, Gandaki Provine and Sudurpaschim Province. 

National GDP of Nepal is estimated to remain 4.08 percent at consumers price. Comparing to the national GDP Bagmati has highest contribution of 4.7 percent while Sudurpaschim has the lowest contribution i.e. 3.4 percent. 

Economic activities will operate in normal after 2 weeks: CBS

by | May 3, 2021 | News & Events

Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) releases National Accounts Statistics of Nepal. 

The National Accounts Statistics (Annual estimates for 2020/21) uses 2010/11 as base year. It is published in account of the three years revision policy (Preliminary, Revised, and Final). It assumes that COVID pandemic will not affect more the economy of Nepal and all economic activities will operate in normal after two weeks. 

Nepal’s GDP Growth Rate at Purchaser’s Price is estimated to remain at 4.01 percent in the year 2020/21. It was -2.09 in the year 2019/20. 

According to National Accounts Statistics report Agriculture and fishery shares still the highest share in GDP i.e. 25.8 percent. Wholesale and retail market shares second highest GDP share i.e. 15.7 percent. 

Nominal Per Capita GDP (US dollar) is estimated to reach 1191. Where as Nominal Per Capita GNI will be 1196 US dollar.

GDP compilation in Nepal started in 1961/62, where as regular compilation started since 1964/65. 

Nepal’s economic growth in negative trend says CBS

by | Mar 4, 2021 | News & Events

Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) disseminates new base for National Accounts Statistics. According to CBS Rebasing of the National Accounts Series is the process of replacing an old base year with a new and more recent base year for computing constant price estimates. Rebasing is taken as an opportunity to address the limitations regarding methodology, definitions and data sources of National Account Statistics. As per CBS the first base year of National Accounts was 1964/65 and first Rebasing was done in 1974/75. In Nepal’s context Rebasing of National Accounts is done every ten years. Second, third and fourth Rebasing were done in 1984/85, 1994/95 and 2000/01. This is the fifth series of Rebasing of National Accounts.

According to Rebased National Accounts Statistics Nepal’s economy is in negative growth of 1.99 percent at basic price scenario. But as unveiled earlier as per the old base Nepal’s economic growth was 2.27 percent. Similarly, GDP growth rate at purchase price scenario is also in negative trend of 1.88 percent, while it was 2.28 percent at old base.

However, Nepal’s economy is in negative growth due to COVID-19 pandemic the economic growth in the first quarter of the fiscal year (2077/78) shows an increase from -15.4 to -4.6 percent growth.

CBS says the rebasing does not change the economic facts but it rather measures them better giving more reliable and timely measure of economic growth.

15th Periodic Plan in Infographics

by | Mar 2, 2021 | News, News & Events

National Planning Commission (NPC) has come out with Fifteenth Periodic Plan. According to NPC, the Fifteenth Plan has been formulated as the base plan to achieve fundamental rights, provisions including directive principles and policies of the state, the Sustainable Development Goals, global economic outlook, and commitments of the government made on different occasions. A scenario wrapped up with a roadmap of the LongTerm Vision 2043 has been developed for the next 25 years to fulfill the vision of “Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepali”.
This long-term vision-2043 foresees the graduation from the least developed country (LDC) to a developing country by 2022 by achieving income growth, the formation of quality of human capital, and reduce economic vulnerabilities. It also envisages graduating to the upper-middle-income country by 2030 by achieving the SDGs. The vision is focused on building an equitable society based on social justice. The goals defined in this vision will be achieved by focusing investments in transformative programs through the mobilization of internal and external resources as well as through the development of the allied sectors of the economy.
Strategies of the Long-term Vision 2043 are as follows:
1. To achieve rapid, sustainable, and employment-oriented economic growth,
2. To ensure affordable and quality health care and education,
3. To develop internal and international interconnectivity and sustainable
cities/settlements,
4. To increase production and productivity,
5. To provide a comprehensive, sustainable and productive social security and
protection,
6. To build a just society characterized by poverty alleviation and socio-economic
equality,
7. To conserve and utilize natural resources and improve resilience, and27
8. To strengthen public services, enhance balanced provincial development, and promote national unity.

Nepal Human Development Report 2020

by | Jan 28, 2021 | News & Events

Nepal Human Development Report 2020
Beyond Graduation: Productive Transformation and Prosperity

National Planning Commission has been publishing the Nepal Human Development Report since 1998, with the focus shifting considering the needs of the country. The Nepal Human Development Report 2020: Beyond LDC Graduation: Productive Transformation and Prosperity is the latest in series since its first publication in 1998. The recently published report has focused on how Nepal could meaningfully advance towards sustainable human development at a faster pace.

The report uncovers inequalities across Nepal, particularly within some provinces, denoting a wide variation in productive capabilities and opportunities. The report also suggests narrowing these gaps with a more radical strategic shift in both the supply and demand side of the economy, specifically focusing on complementary investment in empowering people through voice and choice, as well as the accountability of all levels of decision-making towards an empowerment agenda.

The report also alerts that in the post-graduation era, Nepal faces potential export losses and erosion in concessional aid, although reductions may not be very high in the short to medium term. Other risks may stem from less favorable bilateral aid terms and the phasing out of some United Nations mechanisms and other supports. A very robust transitional strategy for graduation is required to help minimize risks and maximize gains. The COVID-19 pandemic does pose a big challenge to overall human development in Nepal. For the first time in 30 years, the progress on HDI is likely to be negative.

As per the report Nepal’s national HDI score stood at 0.587 in 2019, which puts the country in the medium human development category. Its score in urban areas (0.647) surpasses that of rural areas (0.561) with a large urban-rural gap. Higher per capita income and better access to education and health services in urban areas explain such striking disparities. The HDI value also varies across provinces. As expected, Bagmati province scores the highest (0.66), followed by Gandaki province (0.62). Province 2 scores the lowest (0.51) followed by Karnali (0.538). This indicates the uneven distribution of development outcomes across different parts of the country.

Nepal’s overall human development loss due to inequality is below the loss experienced by most South Asian countries, except Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Nepal is behind all South Asian countries in terms of inequality in income, however, having among the highest disparities in the region despite relatively lower inequality in health and education.

The female HDI value for Nepal is 0.549, compared to 0.619 for males. It suggests that the degree of gender disparity in human development in Nepal as a whole is not very high, with the female HDI value only 11.3 percent lower than that of males. Nepal’s GDI value reached 0.886 in 2019 from 0.75 in 1995, an increase of 18 percent.

The HDR 2020 report reveals that Nepal’s 2019 Gender Inequality Index (GII) value is 0.479. This is consistent with the 2018 value of 0.476 reported in the 2019 global Human Development Report. It indicates a fairly moderate level of gender inequality in Nepal. Similarly Nepal’s score on customs administration is the lowest and on timeliness is highest, but it is far from the best-performing country on any of the indicators. This shows that Nepal is inefficient in trade logistics.

The report appears at an unprecedented time, when not only Nepal but the entire world is struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic, which has slowed development momentum globally, with a high risk of fallback from a high growth trajectory. The pandemic requires a fresh review of the graduation plan. With sharp deceleration in economic growth, reductions in human assets and intensification of economic vulnerability, Nepal faces a changed situation. This necessitates a closer review of the scheduled graduation plan. Enhancing socioeconomic and environmental resilience by reducing vulnerabilities will likely be a crucial part of the transitional strategy.

The report presents a rigorous analysis of the socio-economic spectrum of the country, using available data across the country and across time, including a province-wise analysis. The findings have shown that some provinces are further behind than others in human and overall development.

COVID-19 crisis causes inadequate food consumption and food insufficiency among households in Nepal

by | Nov 4, 2020 | News & Events

WFP in cooperation with the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development has published a survey report on the Impact of COVID-19 on Households in Nepal. This is the second round of the mVAM Household Survey conducted in August 2020. First round of the survey was conducted in April 2020. The survey report reveals that food insecurity across the country has decreased slightly compared to April 2020; however it remains higher than 4 years ago. According to the report 20.2 percent of the households had inadequate food consumption and 4.7 percent of households had poor dietary diversity. Overall, 11.8 percent of households adopted at least one negative coping strategy to address food shortages and about 6.7 percent of households reported that the food they had in stock was insufficient to meet their needs.

As per the report, in the first round of mVAM Household Survey conducted in April 2020, 23.2 percent of households had inadequate diet. Similarly, 7.2 percent of households had poor dietary diversity and around 45.9 percent of children between 6-23 months of age did not meet minimum dietary diversity in April.

Survey findings reveal that Sudurpaschim and Karnali provinces have the highest proportion of food insecure households, with 23.8 and 23.3 percent households consuming inadequate diet respectively. Similarly, inadequate food consumption was also relatively high in Province 2, 22.1 percent.

Report reveals that the COVID-19 crisis has continued to negatively impact livelihoods of Nepalese households, with 11 percent of households reporting job loss and 31.2 percent a reduction in income. Income reduction was the highest in Province 1 (40.5%), followed by Sudurpaschim (38.8%) and Province 2 (38.3%).

Overall, job loss and income reduction caused by the COVID-19 crisis affected household food security: inadequate food consumption and food insufficiency were more common among households that reported job loss and income reduction, compared to households that did not experience job loss and income reduction.

More than 20 percent of the respondents of the survey said that increase in food price were their major concern during the COVID-19 crisis, followed by shortage of food (16.3%), reduction in income (15.5%) and lack of work opportunities (14.8%).

The second round of the nation-wide household survey of its kind confirms continued pressure on food security, livelihoods and incomes of Nepalese households.