Nepal’s real GDP growth projected to accelerate to 5.1 percent in FY25

As per word bank Nepal Development update 024 Nepal’s real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 5.1 percent in FY25 and 5.5 percent in FY26. Wholesale, retail, construction, and manufacturing sectors- that collectively account for over one-fifth of GDP-are poised to benefit from the NRB’s loosening of monetary policy and easing of regulatory requirements, including the relaxation of working capital requirements, easing of loan classification and loan- loss provisioning for businesses that continue servicing loans despite closures due to unforeseen circumstances. These measures are expected to stimulate private investment, while remittance-driven private consumption and increased exports of hydropower and tourism are anticipated to further bolster economic growth.

Nepal’s real GDP growth accelerated to 3.9 percent in FY24, up from 2 percent in FY23. The services sector was the key driver, fueled by a 30.7 percent surge in tourist arrivals, which boosted activities in transportation, accommodation, and food services. Increased hydropower production, by over 450 MW, plus a 4.3 percent rise in paddy production also contributed to the growth.

The current account surplus is expected to narrow as the trade deficit widens. This widening will stem from a rise in both merchandise and service imports.

International remittances plays a significant role in Nepal’s economy, affecting household consumption, poverty reduction, and human capital development. There is also a risk that economic growth could slow if there is a shock in migrant-receiving countries. 

While the medium-term outlook for Nepal remains positive, it is subject to several downside risks.

Government announces budget of Rs 1647.57 billion for fiscal year 2021/22

Finance Minister Bishnu Prasad Paudel on Saturday presented a budget of Rs 1647.57 billion for fiscal year 2078/79, through ordinance, which is 12 percent bigger than that for the ongoing fiscal year.

Releasing the budget for the upcoming fiscal year, Minister for Finance Bishnu Prasad Poudel allocated Rs 678.61 billion (41.2%) in recurrent expenditure, Rs 374.26 billion (22.7%) in capital expenditure and Rs 207.97 billion (12.6%) in financial management.

Similarly, Rs 386.71 billion has been allocated under the fiscal transfer to the Province and Local Levels. Under the fiscal transfer, Rs 325.74 billion has been allocated in the equalization grant while Rs 60.97 billion is for the capital expenditures.

15th Periodic Plan in Infographics

National Planning Commission (NPC) has come out with Fifteenth Periodic Plan. According to NPC, the Fifteenth Plan has been formulated as the base plan to achieve fundamental rights, provisions including directive principles and policies of the state, the Sustainable Development Goals, global economic outlook, and commitments of the government made on different occasions. A scenario wrapped up with a roadmap of the LongTerm Vision 2043 has been developed for the next 25 years to fulfill the vision of “Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepali”.
This long-term vision-2043 foresees the graduation from the least developed country (LDC) to a developing country by 2022 by achieving income growth, the formation of quality of human capital, and reduce economic vulnerabilities. It also envisages graduating to the upper-middle-income country by 2030 by achieving the SDGs. The vision is focused on building an equitable society based on social justice. The goals defined in this vision will be achieved by focusing investments in transformative programs through the mobilization of internal and external resources as well as through the development of the allied sectors of the economy.
Strategies of the Long-term Vision 2043 are as follows:
1. To achieve rapid, sustainable, and employment-oriented economic growth,
2. To ensure affordable and quality health care and education,
3. To develop internal and international interconnectivity and sustainable
cities/settlements,
4. To increase production and productivity,
5. To provide a comprehensive, sustainable and productive social security and
protection,
6. To build a just society characterized by poverty alleviation and socio-economic
equality,
7. To conserve and utilize natural resources and improve resilience, and27
8. To strengthen public services, enhance balanced provincial development, and promote national unity.

Nepal Human Development Report 2020

Nepal Human Development Report 2020
Beyond Graduation: Productive Transformation and Prosperity

National Planning Commission has been publishing the Nepal Human Development Report since 1998, with the focus shifting considering the needs of the country. The Nepal Human Development Report 2020: Beyond LDC Graduation: Productive Transformation and Prosperity is the latest in series since its first publication in 1998. The recently published report has focused on how Nepal could meaningfully advance towards sustainable human development at a faster pace.

The report uncovers inequalities across Nepal, particularly within some provinces, denoting a wide variation in productive capabilities and opportunities. The report also suggests narrowing these gaps with a more radical strategic shift in both the supply and demand side of the economy, specifically focusing on complementary investment in empowering people through voice and choice, as well as the accountability of all levels of decision-making towards an empowerment agenda.

The report also alerts that in the post-graduation era, Nepal faces potential export losses and erosion in concessional aid, although reductions may not be very high in the short to medium term. Other risks may stem from less favorable bilateral aid terms and the phasing out of some United Nations mechanisms and other supports. A very robust transitional strategy for graduation is required to help minimize risks and maximize gains. The COVID-19 pandemic does pose a big challenge to overall human development in Nepal. For the first time in 30 years, the progress on HDI is likely to be negative.

As per the report Nepal’s national HDI score stood at 0.587 in 2019, which puts the country in the medium human development category. Its score in urban areas (0.647) surpasses that of rural areas (0.561) with a large urban-rural gap. Higher per capita income and better access to education and health services in urban areas explain such striking disparities. The HDI value also varies across provinces. As expected, Bagmati province scores the highest (0.66), followed by Gandaki province (0.62). Province 2 scores the lowest (0.51) followed by Karnali (0.538). This indicates the uneven distribution of development outcomes across different parts of the country.

Nepal’s overall human development loss due to inequality is below the loss experienced by most South Asian countries, except Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Nepal is behind all South Asian countries in terms of inequality in income, however, having among the highest disparities in the region despite relatively lower inequality in health and education.

The female HDI value for Nepal is 0.549, compared to 0.619 for males. It suggests that the degree of gender disparity in human development in Nepal as a whole is not very high, with the female HDI value only 11.3 percent lower than that of males. Nepal’s GDI value reached 0.886 in 2019 from 0.75 in 1995, an increase of 18 percent.

The HDR 2020 report reveals that Nepal’s 2019 Gender Inequality Index (GII) value is 0.479. This is consistent with the 2018 value of 0.476 reported in the 2019 global Human Development Report. It indicates a fairly moderate level of gender inequality in Nepal. Similarly Nepal’s score on customs administration is the lowest and on timeliness is highest, but it is far from the best-performing country on any of the indicators. This shows that Nepal is inefficient in trade logistics.

The report appears at an unprecedented time, when not only Nepal but the entire world is struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic, which has slowed development momentum globally, with a high risk of fallback from a high growth trajectory. The pandemic requires a fresh review of the graduation plan. With sharp deceleration in economic growth, reductions in human assets and intensification of economic vulnerability, Nepal faces a changed situation. This necessitates a closer review of the scheduled graduation plan. Enhancing socioeconomic and environmental resilience by reducing vulnerabilities will likely be a crucial part of the transitional strategy.

The report presents a rigorous analysis of the socio-economic spectrum of the country, using available data across the country and across time, including a province-wise analysis. The findings have shown that some provinces are further behind than others in human and overall development.

Survival is a New Challenge

Survival is a New Challenge

‘Corona pandemic has been no threat to government officials & local governments, an opportunity to power brokers & playground for politicians in terms of survival. What about entrepreneurs & private-sector dependents? Are we only the tax producers? Survival is a new challenge.’– Raj Shrestha an entrepreneur.

This is a representative voice by an entrepreneur holding a private company, suddenly moved to a remote working mode with no timeline as to when-or if-they‘d be going back to the office. Lockdowns have spurred digital workarounds in some workplaces and schools but in countries like Nepal where internet access is very low many people are left behind. This global crisis is affecting citiesindustriessmall and large businesses, and the lives of vulnerable people globally. It is changing the world in unprecedented ways. The pandemic has supercharged the economic collapse caused by poverty and conflict and placed the largest burden on the vulnerable. There is weak social protection for working-class citizens in countries like Nepal. Government policies are favored by corporations. The gap between the richest and poorest is widening. Covid-19 pandemic has created plenty of problems for employees working on self and for various private companies. How could companies survive to maintain that intangible but powerful aspect of their regular business environment? 

new survey conducted by the research department of Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), the central Bank of Nepalsought to understand how company culture had changed since Corona Pandemic began. The Federal Government of Nepal announced a lockdown on 24 March 2020. All social and economic activities were stoppedPeople all over the nation and in foreign were stranded where they were. On 15th June lockdown was lifted partially. But economic activities have not yet come to normal. The NRB survey shows the effects and concerns about reopening workplaces, employee‘s wagesnumber, and salary cut off, unemployment, etc. 
674 industries and companies from 52 districts participated in the survey. 61% of the companies were found fully closed, 35% were running partially and 4% were in full operation. 

Data Outlook

Companies and industries who participated in the survey have cut off (22.5%) One-fourth of their staff, many of them temporary and in contract.

73.8% decrease in production/business was reported during the survey by the 96.7% of the industries/companies who participated in the survey.

Debt to total assets ratio of the industries/companies is 48.7%.

74.3% has loan from banks and other financial institutions.

8.7% has loan from savings and credit cooperative.

12% has no loan

22.5% employees have lost their job. Most of them are from Hotel and Restaurant sector.

Salary reduction in an average of 18.2% (mostly hotel, restaurant, transport, education sector)

It will take 9 months for industries and companies to run normally as before.

82.3% industries and companies have decided to continue same business after lockdown.

Businesses Open during Corona Pandemic (in %)

Among the 674 industries and companies from 52 districts who took part in the survey.

Companies and industries that participated in the survey have cut off One-fourth of their staff (22.5%), many of them temporary and contract-based. 96.7% of the industries/companies that participated in the survey said there was a decrease of 73.8% in production/business. The debt to total assets ratio of the industries/companies was found to be 48.7%. 74.3% of companies/industries have a loan from banks and other financial institutions. 8.7% of companies/industries have a loan from savings and credit cooperative. 12% of companies are running without a loan. 22.5% of employees have lost their jobMost of them are from Hotel and Restaurant sector. On an average 18.2% Salary was reduced by mostly hotelrestauranttransport, education sector. It will take 9 months for industries and companies to run normally as before. 82.3% of industries and companies have decided to continue the same business after lockdown. 

The impact of the current crisis is not temporary but is likely to induce lasting changes in the way that economies operate says, Nepal Development Update (NDU), a report published by World Bank. Recently published NDU indicates that ‘economic support to firms will be important to generate employment and pivot them towards a greener economy while managing debt overhang. In the relief stage time-bound, liquidity support should be provided to the most affected firms to increase employment. The agriculture and tourism sectors could be prioritized, given their criticality for food security and employment. In the restructuring stage, continued support to firmsincluding through recapitalization, will be neededPrivate-sector recovery can be supported through targeted investments in digitization and by providing fiscal incentives for green investments. In the resilient recovery stage, efforts need to be aimed at strengthening physical, digital, and financial infrastructure to develop e-commerce platforms, enhance access to finance and promote green growth.’
According to WB, COVID-19 had three effects on the monetary and financial sector in Nepal- 

First, it led to a drop in private sector credit: new loans to the private sector decreased by 64.7 percent between March and May 2020 compared to the same period the previous year, reflecting a slowdown in economic activities and limited service hours of bank branches during the lockdown. 

Second, new deposits – driven by individuals – grew by 82.8 percentreflecting precautionary savings and a deferment of tax payments. 

Third, monetary aggregates increased in May 2020 due to substantial growth in net foreign assets as COVID-19 led to a further decline in imports and an increase in foreign exchange reserves. 

The impacts of lockdown were felt across the economy. Industrial capacity utilization dropped from a pre-COVID baseline of 75-80 percent to 46 percent in June 2020. Daily peak energy consumption, which is closely correlated with industrial production, dropped from pre-COVID level of 1000 megawatts (MW) to 700 MW in June 2020 (NDU/WB). As per the NRB survey, 46.6 percent of companies/industries had 75 percent less energy consumption, 19.2 percent had 50% less energy consumption and 18.1 percent had 25 percent less energy consumption during the lockdown. 

According to NDU; remittance has dropped by 43.3 percent between mid-March to mid-May 2020 compared to the same period in previous years. This has affected private consumption and import of goods. There are millions of migrant workers in Arab Gulf countries. Global reports say almost 14% of the world‘s migrant workers live in the Middle East, where they are at high risk of exploitation as they have no guarantee of social security or pensions. The infection rate is highest among migrant workers, many who had already lost their jobsdue to the Coronavirus. Thousands of jobless Nepalese workers have returned home, and many of them are still waiting for the regular international flights to open in Nepal. The return of Migrant workers‘ has directly affected the country‘s economy as returned labor migrants have increased unemployment and created an excess supply of labor in the domestic labor market. 

The budget for FY 2021 has announced relief and recovery measures. As per the budget
A fund of NPR 50 billion will be created to provide concessional loans at the interest rate of 5 percent for the operation of business and payment of salaries for small and medium-sized industries and COVID-19 affected tourism sector. 

A discount of 25 percent on the electricity fee for individuals consuming electricity up to 150 units in a month and a discount of 15 percent for individuals consuming electricity up to 250 units in a month. The fee will be waived for individuals consuming electricity up to 10 units a month. A 50-percent discount will be provided on demand charges for industries during the lockdown period.

A provision will be made through the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) to provide a refinance facility of up to NPR 100 billion at the interest rate of 5 percent for COVID-19-affected industries in the agriculture, cottage, small and medium-sized enterprise, hotel, and tourism sectors.

The insurance policies of COVID-19-affected industries and transportation will be extended until the lockdown ends. Social security contribution waived for workers and firms during the lockdown period: The government will make contributions (on behalf of workers) to the contribution-based Social Security Fund during the lockdown period. Discounts will be provided on parking fees, airline licensing renewal fees, flight qualification certification charges and the infrastructure tax on aviation fuel.

According to the NRB survey, concessional loans at the interest rate of 5 percent as provisioned in the budget will be a good relief to the industries and companies. 

This will motivate the industrialists and entrepreneurs to operate and continue their business without cutting off the number of employees. Concession in interest rate, Flexible EMI, Tax rebate,

Additional loan facility for running capital, Flexibility to extend loan period is few other demands of the industries and companies to survive and continue their business fluently.

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